I compared the Nico run to Toothache's since I noticed C10 and C13 were much, much faster with Thany.
I've put (-) in places where the two runs shouldn't differ at all. Chapter 1 doesn't have Thany, Chapter 8 is indoors, Chapter 12 has a set turn limit and the Nico run desynched for me at Chapter 14. In addition, Nico run suffers from a lot of inefficiencies: Using too many units, acquiring too many treasures, poor manipulation, etc. This means the total advantage of Toothache's run should be considerably less than 8939 frames. In fact, if Toothache's frame advantage from Chapters 1-8 is cut in half (not too unrealistic since the Nico run lost 2435 frames in C1), he'd actually be slightly behind at this point from raising Alan.
Just taking away Miledy’s promotion in C13 cuts the advantage down to roughly 7939 frames. Now, looking at future maps, there a quite a few left where terrain will slow down Alan significantly.
C17
C18 This chapter is the nail in the coffin
C19
C21
Even if only 2000 frames were saved per chapter in those 4 maps above (and that’s an extremely conservative estimate), you’d still end up behind.
All to say, I’m thoroughly convinced raising Thany is faster in the long run, even without gaidens.