Ok, making a thread just for this game. I've dipped into this game and produced this run through the first two levels:
http://home.comcast.net/~f_amoroso/FireEmblem-TheAxeManv0.1.vbm
Note that through a lot of this, I have to follow a script where I move to certain spots and do certain things, so there isn't a whole lot of room to optimize yet. In fact, I'm really only controlling things after Sain uses the vulnary.
Obviously this would go much faster without the battle animation, but I think that would be pretty lame. As it is, it seems kinda strange with all plot elements skipped.
There is a piece on the random number generation in this game here:
http://faqs.ign.com/articles/520/520430p1.html
Because at this point I only have 4 percent chance to crit at the most, I just make the battles consist of me hitting everytime and the enemies missing--it's pretty easy to do here. The lower probability is getting the stats I want at levelup: there's no reason not to get strength, speed and skill every level, but the others are less important. I finish the battle on the earliest round possible. Perhaps early on the focus can be on stats, then later there can be tons of crits. Later being once the Manni Katti is in hand. :)
There's clearly a lot of variables in this, so I'm still trying to decide exactly how a TAS of this game should look. Ideally, it is probably possible to do Lyn's quest, then Eliwood and Hector's in the same vbm, but just Lyn's would be a good start.
Edit: After reviewing more of the game's algorithms I think luck needs to be gotten every level too. Here is what I see:
Damage = Weapon Damage + Strength/Magic
Hit% = Weapon hit + skill*2 + luck/2
Crit% = Weapon crit + skill/2
Evade% = 2*speed + luck (if constitution is less than weapon weight, subtract the difference)
Crit evade = Luck
So luck figures into hit% and evade%, which I think are about the most important figures in this.