Post subject: Is the TAS community dying (No, it's not)
Joined: 5/30/2005
Posts: 98
I used to come here more years ago but once most of the popular games were TASed I stopped coming as often. It looks like other people have been doing the same thing.
Patashu
He/Him
Joined: 10/2/2005
Posts: 4017
I think there's some kind of cognitive bias for this. Summary of the bias is that you think there's a ton of content in the past because you can consume it all at once, but relatively little content in the present because you have to wait for it to trickle out, so you overestimate productivity of the past and underestimate productivity of the present/future. Also, people not coming as often doesn't indicate overall popularity is down. It's called churn, it exists in every field ever. The question is, are more new people becoming aware of TASes to make up for it, and I would likely say YES, if you look at the exponential growth of viewer base every GDQ for example, TASing interest is very closely related to that, especially ever since the GDQs started showing TASBot block. Another bias is that most people had more free time in the past than right now - as you get a job, study harder, etc. you have less time to watch and make TASes.
My Chiptune music, made in Famitracker: http://soundcloud.com/patashu My twitch. I stream mostly shmups & rhythm games http://twitch.tv/patashu My youtube, again shmups and rhythm games and misc stuff: http://youtube.com/user/patashu
Spikestuff
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gbagcn wrote:
I used to come here more years ago but once most of the popular games were TASed I stopped coming as often. It looks like other people have been doing the same thing.
K.
WebNations/Sabih wrote:
+fsvgm777 never censoring anything.
Disables Comments and Ratings for the YouTube account. Something better for yourself and also others.
Joined: 5/30/2005
Posts: 98
Patashu wrote:
I think there's some kind of cognitive bias for this. Summary of the bias is that you think there's a ton of content in the past because you can consume it all at once, but relatively little content in the present because you have to wait for it to trickle out, so you overestimate productivity of the past and underestimate productivity of the present/future. Also, people not coming as often doesn't indicate overall popularity is down. It's called churn, it exists in every field ever. The question is, are more new people becoming aware of TASes to make up for it, and I would likely say YES, if you look at the exponential growth of viewer base every GDQ for example, TASing interest is very closely related to that, especially ever since the GDQs started showing TASBot block. Another bias is that most people had more free time in the past than right now - as you get a job, study harder, etc. you have less time to watch and make TASes.
Actually when I am coming less often there should be more content since more time has passed between each visit
Editor, Skilled player (1405)
Joined: 3/31/2010
Posts: 2086
Speedrunning in general is bigger than ever before right now. While I would honestly be hoping it would've made for a greater boost to the popularity of tasvideos, there are plenty of new users, submissions and progress on games being made. I'd certainly call the community far from "dying" at this point.
Masterjun
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Site Developer, Skilled player (1971)
Joined: 10/12/2010
Posts: 1179
Location: Germany
Remember years ago when all the popular Wii and GameCube games were already TASed? Yeah, good times! [insert proper explanation as to why the development of emulators prevents the community from dying]
Warning: Might glitch to credits I will finish this ACE soon as possible (or will I?)
Joined: 5/30/2005
Posts: 98
scrimpeh wrote:
Speedrunning in general is bigger than ever before right now. While I would honestly be hoping it would've made for a greater boost to the popularity of tasvideos, there are plenty of new users, submissions and progress on games being made. I'd certainly call the community far from "dying" at this point.
I seem to remember the forums being more active than they are now
AntyMew
It/Its
Encoder, Player (35)
Joined: 10/22/2014
Posts: 425
I think you're experiencing the false-consensus effect; you seem to be overestimating how many people agree with your opinion
Just a Mew! 〜 It/She ΘΔ 〜
Noxxa
They/Them
Moderator, Expert player (4141)
Joined: 8/14/2009
Posts: 4083
Location: The Netherlands
Roughly a year and a half back, there was a similar concern about the number of submissions decreasing. In the end, statistics proved that the submission rate has been more or less stable for the past several years. I haven't noticed any changes to the submission rate since then either. TASVideos is just as alive as ever. EDIT: I also checked statistics on the numbers of movie publications for the past five years, and numbers of "first edition" publications for the past five years. Those are all pretty stable numbers too, at roughly 250 each year and roughly 120 each year respectively. So both runs of new games and of already-run games are still coming in just fine. Certainly you may notice that some people are coming less or are disappearing from the forums entirely, but that's something that happens all the time. The difference is made up for with new members joining in at the same rate.
http://www.youtube.com/Noxxa <dwangoAC> This is a TAS (...). Not suitable for all audiences. May cause undesirable side-effects. May contain emulator abuse. Emulator may be abusive. This product contains glitches known to the state of California to cause egg defects. <Masterjun> I'm just a guy arranging bits in a sequence which could potentially amuse other people looking at these bits <adelikat> In Oregon Trail, I sacrificed my own family to save time. In Star trek, I killed helpless comrades in escape pods to save time. Here, I kill my allies to save time. I think I need help.
mz
Player (79)
Joined: 10/26/2007
Posts: 693
Romhacking.net's forums have this nice page if you're logged in: http://www.romhacking.net/forum/index.php?action=stats#stats There you can see a slow decline of interest in ROM hacking. It would be nice to have something like that for these forums.
You're just fucking stupid, everyone hates you, sorry to tell you the truth. no one likes you, you're someone pretentious and TASes only to be on speed game, but don't have any hope, you won't get there.
AntyMew
It/Its
Encoder, Player (35)
Joined: 10/22/2014
Posts: 425
mz wrote:
There you can see a slow decline of interest in ROM hacking. It would be nice to have something like that for these forums.
Imo it's arguable there's a decline there. The most online count has been very high for the past few years; maybe they're just using IRC or something more often now
Just a Mew! 〜 It/She ΘΔ 〜
mz
Player (79)
Joined: 10/26/2007
Posts: 693
Anty-Lemon wrote:
Imo it's arguable there's a decline there. The most online count has been very high for the past few years; maybe they're just using IRC or something more often now
In 2014 there was only the half of new posts than there was in 2012 and less than one third of 2007's. I'd say it's a decline. "Most online" are just 1-day anomalies of some big websites linking certain popular projects (that FF7 NES hack, big Japan-only RPG translations, etc.), so that column can be safely ignored.
You're just fucking stupid, everyone hates you, sorry to tell you the truth. no one likes you, you're someone pretentious and TASes only to be on speed game, but don't have any hope, you won't get there.
ars4326
He/Him
Experienced player (765)
Joined: 12/8/2012
Posts: 706
Location: Missouri, USA
I can only agree with you on the part where a lot of the more popular 8/16-bit titles have been done (your Marios, Pokemons, Sonics, etc.). I can still think of a few off the top of my head for the NES, SNES, and Genesis that I'd still like to see a run made, though. With that said, there's still a lot of games (especially obscure ones) that still haven't been done. And with PSXHawk coming closer to completion, that's going to open up a whole new area for TASing.
"But as it is written, Eye hath not seen, nor ear heard, neither have entered into the heart of man, the things which God hath prepared for them that love him." - 1 Corinthians 2:9
Editor, Expert player (2460)
Joined: 4/8/2005
Posts: 1573
Location: Gone for a year, just for varietyyyyyyyyy!!
The data suggests a pretty steady increase in the number of new players. 2015: 9 new players (This is for the first two months, so it is 4.5 new players per month = 4.5 x 12 = a total of 54 new players projected for 2015.) 2014: 50 2013: 55 (Two less than last year.) 2012: 57 (Two less than last year.) 2011: 59 2010: 42 (Douglas Adams would be proud.) 2009: 42 (Douglas Adams would be proud.) 2008: 34 2007: 62 2006: 42 (Douglas Adams would be proud.) 2005: 46 2004: 78 (All players were newbies here.)
Active player (260)
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Posts: 145
Location: location, location!
You got 2 replies in <3 minutes. TAS community is far from dying.
Current TAS: [SNES] Jelly Boy [NES] Street Fighter 2010
Banned User, Former player
Joined: 3/10/2004
Posts: 7698
Location: Finland
Are less people signing up and actively participating in the tasvideos forums? The vast majority of avatars are way too familiar... Really rarely do I see an avatar I have never seen before (even more rarely from someone I don't remember seeing before, and whose post count is really low.)
Vulajin
He/Him
Joined: 2/12/2015
Posts: 1
I registered on this forum to let you all know that I think the community for which I just signed up is dying. In fact, TASing as a whole is dying, as evidenced by the fact that I just started TASing a game recently. Doom and gloom.
Player (79)
Joined: 8/5/2007
Posts: 865
Vulajin wrote:
I registered on this forum to let you all know that I think the community for which I just signed up is dying. In fact, TASing as a whole is dying, as evidenced by the fact that I just started TASing a game recently. Doom and gloom.
Sorry to have you, Vulajin.
Active player (434)
Joined: 2/5/2012
Posts: 1693
Location: Brasil
"Come die with us!It will be fun!" tasvideos new slogan? "we live fast,we die fast" is another possibility. BTW, [deleted] .If anything,we've got a lot more activity and new contributors nowadays. ---- Mod edit: Do not throw insults.
TAS i'm interested: megaman series: mmbn1 all chips, mmx3 any% psx glitched fighting games with speed goals in general
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Joined: 3/10/2004
Posts: 7698
Location: Finland
"Live fast, die young, and have a good-looking corpse."
Post subject: Re: Is the TAS community dying
Samsara
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Senior Judge, Site Admin, Expert player (2123)
Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 2794
Location: Northern California
gbagcn wrote:
I used to come here more years ago but once most of the popular games were TASed I stopped coming as often. It looks like other people have been doing the same thing.
"I'm literally part of the problem I think is happening."
TASvideos Admin and acting Senior Judge 💙 | Cohost
warmCabin wrote:
You shouldn't need a degree in computer science to get into this hobby.
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Joined: 4/8/2005
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Location: Gone for a year, just for varietyyyyyyyyy!!
grassini wrote:
thread creator is retarded
So is the Finnish Eurovision contestant of 2015, so shut the FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU up! ^__^ Link to video Edit: Also, there are so many ways in which even the supposedly non-retarded brain fails, like when processing the color of a dress, so it is not at all surprising that a vague concept like "TAS community" seems to be dying to someone. I remember having similar thoughts a few years ago, but it was probably a fallacy or illusion of some sort. Even a healthy Homo sapiens is very prone to illusions, fallacies and delusions, which can be easily verified by talking to one of the so called "religious" people. Calling them retarded would often be wrong. They just don't know. Even a seemingly healthy person can be delusional on some aspect of reality.
Active player (434)
Joined: 2/5/2012
Posts: 1693
Location: Brasil
aqfaq 2 lefty,enjoy your postmodernist values and confusion.
TAS i'm interested: megaman series: mmbn1 all chips, mmx3 any% psx glitched fighting games with speed goals in general
marzojr
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Posts: 964
Location: 🇫🇷 France
Warp wrote:
"Live fast, die young, and have a good-looking corpse."
"Live fast, die young, respawn under more favorable circumstances than you were in when you died, saving as much time as you can in the process."
Marzo Junior
Spikestuff
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ΩGJ Moderator who changed the subject. You know who you are flying edible thing larger than a fly.
WebNations/Sabih wrote:
+fsvgm777 never censoring anything.
Disables Comments and Ratings for the YouTube account. Something better for yourself and also others.